NBA game predictions today

We predict the Raptors to beat the Heat 118–117. 1 game on Sunday 4 October.

Spreads are the home side's line, negative when it's favoured. Our total comes with the range the final score lands in 80% of the time. Tonight's schedule in AEDT.

Heat at Raptors, 10am AEDT: Raptors 118–117, spread Raptors −1.6, total 234.9.

How these are made

Each team's scoring and defence this season, weighted toward recent games, blended with the sum of tonight's player predictions (so injuries and rest days count), plus home court. Tested on last season's final three months: the side we made the favourite won 74% of the time, and the total landed inside our range 82% of the time.