Just the Tip
NBA tips today: our biggest edge, on the record
Just the Tip is our single biggest edge each night, posted around 8pm Sydney time the night before the games and graded on closing-line value.
The record
| Games | Player | Tip | Posted | Closed | CLV | Result |
|---|
How it's chosen
The pipeline chooses it, never a person. Every night it compares our prediction for every player with every bookmaker's line and takes the single biggest gap between our probability and the bookmaker's, once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
Points, rebounds, assists, threes and the combined markets (Pts + Reb, Pts + Ast, Reb + Ast, Pts + Reb + Ast) only. The line has to be at Sportsbet or TAB, at a price of 1.70 or better, for a player with a settled role. It's posted around 8pm Sydney time the night before the games, here and on X at @thetipoff_nba.
It's graded first on closing-line value: the price we posted against the bookmaker's fair price when the market closed. Beating the close over a season is the clearest sign the numbers are ahead of the market; wins and losses over a few dozen tips mostly measure luck. Preseason tips are a trial run: listed here, never counted.